Australia’s premier weight-for-age contest is upon us, with a capability area of 14 set to face the starter at Saturday’s Cox Plate
The forecast in Melbourne — three to 10mm of rain on Friday and 10 to 20mm on Saturday — suggests we’ll see racing on a rain-affected monitor. The precise ranking is at all times arduous to foretell however I’ve worked to a Soft 6.
The primary occasion is Race 9 at Moonee Valley, which is scheduled to be run at 4.15pm AEDT.
This Waller gelding was an absolute revelation final spring, successful the G1 Epsom (1600m) and the Golden Eagle (1500m) in Sydney. He was a totally completely different horse by the autumn although, failing to put in 5 runs. Many thought his finest was behind him coming into this marketing campaign however Waller has him firing once more, coming into this race off back-to-back wins within the G1 George Important Stakes (1600m) and the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m). The horse he beat within the Hill Stakes, Avilius, was good with out luck within the Caulfield Cup (2400m) final week. This will probably be his first run at The Valley and simply his third in Melbourne (unplaced within the different two).
TAB odds — Win: $12, place: $3.50
The rejuvenated veteran was a controversial omission (or non-selection) from this race final 12 months, following a 0.4L 2nd to Winx in 2017 — his career-best run — and a 4.75L third in 2018. He was getting well-beaten in G3 races in Perth earlier this 12 months and retirement seemingly loomed giant however Waller has utterly turned his type round. The 8YO was a shock winner of the G2 Feehan Stakes (1600m) right here three-back, earlier than splitting Russian Camelot and Arcadia Queen within the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) final begin. These two horses held him comfortably final time however doubt the sluggish tempo helped his trigger. Barrier 14 makes issues difficult.
Win: $21, place: $5
3. FIERCE IMPACT
This ultra-consistent entire knocked off Russian Camelot to win the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington two-back. He then returned to Sydney and completed 2.2L off Kolding as a $2.30F within the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m). He clocked related closing sectionals to the winner there however simply had an excessive amount of to do from the again (in all probability settled additional again than anticipated). The rain gained’t damage his probabilities given he gained the G1 Cantala Stakes (1600m) on a Smooth 7 final spring, however the barrier (12) stings a bit of. Others boast stronger 2000m credentials, however he’s simply so real.
Win: $34, place: $8
4. MASTER OF WINE
The Hawkes gelding is on the fast back-up right here after ending tenth in final Saturday’s G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), crushed by 4.6L. He was ridden towards his standard sample there, settling exterior of the chief, however was nonetheless fairly disappointing. He’s but to put in 4 runs this spring, with a 0.8L fifth to Verry Elleegant within the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) his finest effort. A repeat of that may give him an out of doors hope of inserting, however he wants to search out lengths on his most up-to-date effort.
Win: $34, place: $8
Saved from the Caulfield Cup for this, Mugatoo was final seen ending a head off Mirage Dancer within the G1 Metropolitan (2400m) final begin. The winner there was a complete forgive job within the Caulfield Cup, so it’s not precisely simple to get a learn on that type. The chance of a rain-affected monitor helps Mugatoo, who’s 4 from 7 on comfortable tracks, however he’s nonetheless but to show himself at WFA stage. The progressive gelding was crushed 9.1L behind Verry Elleegant within the G1 Tancred Stakes (2400m) final autumn — which was his first massive take a look at at this stage.
Win: $26, place: $6
Aspetar doesn’t have the gate velocity to make the most of barrier three, with Lane prone to settle him within the final three or 4. He was a G2 winner over this distance final begin, following a close-up 2nd at Sandown when seemingly each likelihood. The final time he travelled exterior of the UK, he was crushed 14.5L within the G1 Hong Kong Vase (2400m) at Sha Tin. He did nonetheless win the G1 Preis Von Europa (2400m) in Germany previous to that. His racing model doesn’t precisely look ideally suited for 2040m round The Valley, although his file at this journey reads effectively on paper (4:2-1-1).
Win: $16, place: $4.40
7. SIR DRAGONET
Sir Dragonet seemed no hope on a dry monitor, however the rain positively will increase his probabilities. The son of Camelot, now with Maher and Eustace, completed 2nd to Magical at G1 stage over this journey final begin, which clearly reads properly for this. Previous to that he was rolled by Buckhurst as a $1.90F, however that was on a good-rated monitor the place he’s 3:0-1-0. Up to now in his 9-start profession, he’s been crushed at $1.90, $2.90, $1.55, $3.75, $1.45 and $3.75 — so punters have rated him a lot greater than what he’s really produced thus far (a maiden win and a G3 win beating Norway and Dashing Willoughby).
Win: $13, place: $3.70
8. MAGIC WAND
This well-travelled mare completed 4th on this occasion final 12 months, crushed 3.9L. You could possibly argue the Cox Plate is not any more durable this 12 months — there may be definitely no Lys Gracieux (at this stage anyway). Her type since that race has been sound, successful the G1 Mackinnon Stakes over this distance earlier than simply falling brief within the G1 Hong Kong Cup (2000m) in quick time. Her final couple have been plain however she was only one.45L off Allow over this journey three-back. Rain helps others greater than it helps her, however she has drawn properly for the in-form Mark Zahra.
Win: $26, place: $6
9. ARCADIA QUEEN
The West Australian mare was again to her sensible finest final begin, beating Russian Camelot by 1.25L within the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m). The bar plates got here off there and so they stay off right here, which is clearly an incredible signal that her toes are in significantly better situation than they have been initially of the spring. The way in which the race was run final begin suited her, sitting again in a small area earlier than letting rip with a pointy turn-of-foot. You’ll think about this occasion will probably be run at a extra real tempo, with the 3YO operating alongside in entrance, and the specter of rain is a adverse. You couldn’t presumably rule her out on what she confirmed at Caulfield final begin although.
Win: $5.50, place: $2.10
The popular pizza-eating mare put in an improved effort final begin, ending 2nd within the G3 Craven Plate (2000m). It is a important step up from that although and also you couldn’t presumably have her primarily based on what she’s achieved since successful the G1 Doncaster (1600m) at massive odds.
Win: $81, place: $17
11. RUSSIAN CAMELOT
The big “Russian” had his colors lowered final begin, ending 1.25L off Arcadia Queen as a $1.40F within the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m). Nevertheless, the sit-and-sprint nature of that race didn’t actually swimsuit, and you would argue Pike on Arcadia Queen caught Oliver without warning a bit of bit within the straight. Hopefully, for Russian Camelot’s sake, they actually stretch out on this and he can construct by his gears and have a full head of steam rounding the tight ultimate bend. Possibly he wants a bit additional than 2040m now, however the chance of a moist monitor is a giant plus given what we noticed within the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) on a Smooth 6 two-back. Barrier 15 doesn’t look nice, however you’d fairly see him exterior of runners than trying to find runs on the within.
Win: $4.60, place: $1.90
Armory seems to be the decide of the internationals, coming off a third behind Magical and Ghaiyyath within the G1 Irish Champion over this journey final begin. He was $67 there, so possibly it was a spike run, however that effort seems to be adequate to offer this an actual shake. A genuinely moist monitor must be some question although given Sir Dragonet beat him fairly comfortably with extra weight after they clashed over this distance three-back. He’s been a dominant winner over a lot shorter journeys than this, so he definitely possesses an honest turn-of-foot. Melham ought to put him in the best spot from barrier six.
Win: $6, place: $2.20
The Kiwi mare is only a mannequin of consistency, ending within the high two in 14 of her 18 profession begins. She was dominant successful the G3 Ritchie Handicap (1400m) two-back, earlier than overcoming a large run to take out the G1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) in snug style. That was a sensational win and though 2000m stays a little bit of a question — particularly a fast-run 2000m — she does map for a reasonably economical run from barrier two. She doesn’t need it actually moist, however a comfortable deck is not any concern in any respect. McEvoy has ridden her seven occasions and by no means completed worse than 2nd. Her stablemate Te Akau Shark got here off the same set-up to run third on this occasion final 12 months.
Win: $8.50, place: $2.80
The lone 3YO in the field, carrying simply 49.5kg, completed third within the G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) final begin however was well-held. He began $61 in that however is simply $21 on this a lot more durable race. Previous to the Guineas, the Maher and Eustace colt was crushed in a BM64 at Flemington after sitting exterior of the chief. He’ll possible lead on this, and run alongside at an honest clip, nevertheless it’s arduous to see him not getting the staggers within the straight. The early worth ($21) seems to be severe unders.
Win: $19, place: $5
The 1st emergency was well-held within the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) final Saturday and appears examined if he does achieve a run right here. A moist monitor could be an actual adverse, given Sir Dragonet completed 4.45L in entrance of him on a comfortable deck three-back.
Win: $41, place: $9
11. Russian Camelot
9. Arcadia Queen
$100 BETTING STRATEGY
$75 on Russian Camelot (11) @ $4.60
$25 on Probabeel (13) @ $8.50
This text first appeared on punters.com.au and was reproduced with permission