Right here we go once more. Seven months into the coronavirus pandemic, Covid-19 numbers are as soon as once more going within the mistaken course in 29 out of fifty states.
Regardless of President Trump saying repeatedly that Covid-19 is “going away,” the information reveals that the virus isn’t going anyplace.
The U.S. is seeing widespread will increase in Covid-19 instances on the identical stage the nation was at simply after the July 4th vacation weekend, previous to the massive summer time surge. This has public well being consultants involved that the nation is heading for a 3rd spike.
“We now have a baseline of infections that adjust between 40 and 50 thousand per day,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s high infectious illness professional, told CNBC’s Shepard Smith yesterday. “That’s a foul place to be whenever you’re going into the cooler climate of the autumn and the colder climate of the winter.”
In the meantime, home air journey has been ticking up, too. Final month, the Transportation Safety Administration (TSA) screened greater than 900,000 passengers on simply two days, each throughout Labor Day weekend, based on the agency’s throughput data. The TSA has already hit that milestone on 4 days in October, and the month isn’t even half over.
For Individuals making an attempt to determine whether or not it’s protected to take an upcoming enterprise or leisure journey throughout the newest surge, a number of wonderful instruments may help make sense of the tendencies.
In case your journey dates are imminent, flip to the Covid-19 risk-assessment map run by Harvard International Well being Institute and Brown College of Public Well being. The colour-coded map gives a straightforward means for Individuals to evaluate how rapidly the illness is spreading in a state or county. Every neighborhood has a ranking of inexperienced, yellow, orange or purple, primarily based upon the variety of new every day instances of Covid-19 per 100,000 folks over a seven-day rolling common.
With coronavirus scorching spots sprawling throughout the Midwest and Mountain West, almost one in three states is now coloured purple, which means the neighborhood is “at a tipping level” for Covid-19 infections. The variety of high-risk states has jumped from 4 to 13 prior to now month.
In case your journey remains to be every week or extra away, there’s a higher metric to take a look at. In keeping with Dr. Fauci, the very best predictor of the subsequent scorching spot is a rising positivity price. You possibly can seek the advice of Johns Hopkins University’s Covid-19 tracking map to seek out out which states are almost certainly to show into scorching spots.
Proper now, a whopping 25 states — precisely half the nation — have reported rising positivity charges for 2 consecutive weeks.
“The upper the % constructive is, the extra regarding it’s,” based on Johns Hopkins’ explainer. “As a rule of thumb, nevertheless, one threshold for the % constructive being ‘too excessive’ is 5%.” At the moment, a mindblowing 31 states are above the 5% threshold.
In Idaho, 22.9% of assessments got here again constructive for COVID-19 final week, the very best positivity price within the nation. South Dakota and Wisconsin additionally reported “% constructive” charges above 20% final week.
Relating to managing the coronavirus pandemic, america has fared worse than almost each different nation on the earth. Thus far, over 7.8 million Individuals have change into contaminated with the novel coronavirus and 215,000 have died.
A well-regarded mannequin by the Institute for Well being Metrics and Analysis on the College of Washington is at the moment projecting that the U.S. will hit 394,000 Covid-19 deaths by February 1, 2021. The mannequin predicts that the demise price will rise all through the autumn and winter till it peaks at 2,300 per day in mid-January, up from about 700 a day now.